Even so, the enthusiasm that Mr. Trump excites in his supporters remains a factor in the election. Linda Schopp, from Halifax, Pennsylvania, said she did not vote in 2016 but not because there was no preference: Ms. Schope, a Trump supporter, suffers from arthritis and struggles to turn around. But as the absentee vote spread more widely this year, she said she would vote by mail for the president.
“He has a common sense,” said Ms. Schopp, describing him as more forthright than an old politician like Biden. She said the president does not lie to you. If he says he’s going to do something, he goes and does it. “
If the President is defeated, the clearest explanation may be his weakness with the women. Mr. Biden led Mr. Trump in double digits among female voters in each of the four states, and in some states the advantage was so great that it offset Mr. Trump’s strength among men.
In Arizona, for example, the president had an eight-point advantage with men, but Biden was the favorite for women, winning 56 percent of them compared to Mr. Trump’s 38 percent.
Another group pushing Biden is white, college-educated voters, a traditionally Republican bloc that has fled the Trump era party. The former vice president leads in double digits among white college degree voters in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Arizona and outperforms him, 48 to 45 percent, with that constituency in Florida.
In Maricopa County, Arizona, home to Phoenix and its environs, Biden won 48 percent of the vote compared to Mr. Trump’s 42 percent, according to the poll. In 2016, Mr. Trump won the county with 3 points.
Biden is also preparing to become the first Democrat in 20 years to carry the elderly, who are the voters most at risk of contracting the Coronavirus. In Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, the former vice president is leading double figures with older voters. And in Florida and Arizona, retirement havens with seniors richer and more fearful of taxes, Mr. Trump is effectively associated with Biden among older voters despite winning convincingly with them in both states in 2016.
The president is still at odds in Florida over the strength of his support from the white working class and his gains among Hispanic voters. It’s competing with the Florida Latinos more than it was in 2016, and 9 percent of them are undecided.
Hispanic men in Florida, in particular, are more willing to support Mr. Trump. The survey found that the two candidates split this group roughly evenly, with Biden only one point ahead. But the president faces a bigger gender gap in Latino society than it does above all: Latinas favor Mr. Biden by 39 points.