The United Nations warned on Thursday that the goal of the Paris Agreement on the fight against global warming is to reach 4025 degrees above pre-industrial levels and by 2025 the average temperature is likely to exceed 40% a year.
Under the effects of climate change, the past decade has recorded record temperatures: 2020 thus joining 2016 as the warmest year on record in the world, averaging 1.25 ° C higher than the pre-industrial period.
However, the Paris Agreement, which ended in 2015, aims to “significantly reduce the planet’s average temperature below 2 degrees Celsius. 1.5 ° C (which) will significantly reduce the risks and effects of climate change.
But according to a study by the British Meteorological Office for the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), a specialized agency of the United Nations, the probability that the latter threshold will exceed at least one calendar year continues to increase. .
“The average annual global temperature will be at least 1.5% C for the next five years, temporarily 1.5% higher than pre – industrial values, and this probability increases over time,” the WMO points out in its presentation. Annual First Decade Global Climate Forecast Bulletin “.
In addition, “At least one year between 2021 and 2025 will be the hottest year on record, thus eliminating 2016”.
Although this breach is temporary, “this study shows that we approach the lower limit of the Paris Agreement in a measurable and unavoidable way
To warn of the consequences, “global warming will have a greater impact on increased ice melting, sea level rise, increased heat waves and other extreme weather events, as well as food security, health, the environment and sustainable development”.
Other experts point out that the end of Paris contract targets, such as Jori Rogelz of Imperial College London, does not mean a temporary overshoot of 1.5 ° C. “But this is even worse news,” he said. “This again tells us that measures to combat global warming are not yet adequate and that there is an urgent need to reduce emissions (of greenhouse gases) to zero to stop global warming.”